Indonesia’s economic growth, recorded at 5.04 percent year on year and 1.43 percent quarter on quarter, continues to demonstrate resilience and broad based expansion despite a slight moderation from the previous quarter. Juwai IQI Global Chief Economist Shan Saeed emphasized that the current trend does not signal a slowdown but rather a mid cycle consolidation, describing it as a healthy pause in an otherwise strong growth trajectory.
“This is not a slowdown, but a healthy consolidation within an economic cycle that remains constructive,” Saeed said in an official statement on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
He noted that Indonesia is showing structural stability rarely seen in other developing economies in the region. With full year growth projected between 5.0 and 5.8 percent, Saeed believes Indonesia remains a key anchor of macroeconomic stability in ASEAN, supported by disciplined fiscal and monetary policies and strong domestic fundamentals.
Several indicators point to renewed acceleration toward year end. The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, extending its expansion to 25 consecutive months and signaling solid new orders and export activity. The trade surplus reached 3.2 billion US dollars in September, marking 65 straight months in positive territory, driven in part by exports of electric vehicle related metals including nickel, copper, and cobalt.
Tourism performance has also strengthened. From January to September, foreign tourist arrivals reached 11.2 million, surpassing the total for 2023. By year end, arrivals are expected to reach 14 million and contribute around 1.2 percentage points to services sector GDP.
Domestic indicators remain supportive. The Retail Sales Index rose 3.1 percent in September, while inflation stayed stable at 2.86 percent in October, indicating that purchasing power remains intact. “With PMI above 50, a consistent trade surplus, and year end tourism momentum, I estimate that fourth quarter GDP could reach 5.5 to 5.6 percent,” Saeed said.
He identified household consumption and exports as the main engines of Indonesia’s expansion. Household consumption, which accounts for 53.8 percent of GDP, remains strong, supported by a Consumer Confidence Index of 103.2 in September. Seasonal spending and year end bonuses are expected to reinforce this trend.
On the external side, exports grew 11.4 percent year on year in September to 23.7 billion US dollars, driven by mineral fuels, iron and steel, and machinery. Imports rose 7.2 percent, suggesting active production and investment activity. The rupiah remained stable at around IDR 15,350 per US dollar, outperforming several regional currencies. Saeed praised Bank Indonesia for maintaining structural currency stability while supporting credit growth. “All credit goes to Bank Indonesia,” he said.
Saeed also highlighted the synergy between fiscal and monetary policy as a major strength of the Indonesian economy. The fiscal deficit, estimated at 1.9 percent of GDP, reflects effective budget management, while infrastructure spending reached 75.3 percent as of September, generating a positive multiplier effect. The BI7DRR policy rate of 6.00 percent has maintained rupiah stability and kept core inflation near the 1.9 to 2.0 percent range. Credit growth of 9.4 percent year on year indicates that monetary conditions remain pro growth. Saeed advised investors to remain tactical in late 2025 and early 2026. He highlighted financials, consumer and retail sectors, infrastructure, logistics, and key metal and energy exports such as nickel matte, copper cathode, and cobalt sulfate as areas with strong potential.
“Stability is Indonesia’s strategy, and growth is its reward. In a world filled with uncertainty, Indonesia remains the macroeconomic anchor of Southeast Asia,” he concluded.
November 5, 2025, CNBC Indonesia
(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20251105184940-4-682650/ekonom-global-indonesia-tunjukkan-stabilitas-struktural)