National economic growth remained above the 5 percent mark in the third quarter, driven largely by strong export performance. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) official Edy Mahmud announced in Jakarta on Wednesday that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed slightly to 5.04 percent year-on-year (yoy), down from 5.12 percent in the previous quarter, though still marginally higher than the level recorded a year earlier.
“This growth is higher than the third quarter of 2024, which stood at 4.95 percent [yoy],” Edy said.
He noted that average GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 5.01 percent, leaving a noticeable gap to the government’s full-year target of 5.2 percent. The Finance Ministry’s Economy and Fiscal Strategy Directorate General had projected that third-quarter growth would hover around 5.1 percent. However, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa cautioned in October that growth might come in lower due to weeklong protests in late August that disrupted business activity and created additional uncertainty. Purbaya nonetheless maintained that growth could reach 5.5 percent yoy in the final quarter.
BPS data showed that manufacturing expanded 5.54 percent yoy and remained the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for more than 19 percent of total output. Agriculture grew 4.93 percent yoy, while the trade sector posted 5.49 percent growth. From the expenditure side, household consumption increased by 4.89 percent yoy, slightly below the 4.97 percent recorded in the second quarter. Although consumption still accounts for more than half of GDP, its share declined to 53.14 percent in the third quarter from 54.25 percent in the second and 54.53 percent in the first.
Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto acknowledged a “weakening” in consumption during the third quarter but expressed confidence that it would rebound in the final quarter. He made the remark as he headed to a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto at the State Palace to discuss the economy. Airlangga had initially planned a press conference on GDP performance on Wednesday but cancelled it due to the unexpected meeting. Meanwhile, exports grew 9.91 percent yoy, a slight moderation from the 10.67 percent recorded in the previous quarter.
In an analysis published Wednesday, Permata Bank economist Faisal Rachman attributed the moderation in export growth to normalization after front-loading earlier in the year, when traders rushed to ship goods ahead of higher United States import tariffs on Indonesian products. Imports rose only 1.18 percent yoy, sharply lower than the 11.65 percent growth seen in the second quarter. Faisal noted that weakening imports signaled softer investment. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which reflects investment in buildings, machinery, and other fixed assets, grew 5.04 percent yoy, down from 6.99 percent previously.
Faisal said the overall moderation in growth reflected “seasonal normalization,” noting that the second quarter had been boosted by spending during religious festivities. He added that Indonesia’s growth outlook still faced headwinds, underscoring the need for an expansionary fiscal policy to support productive sectors.
Andalas University economist Syafruddin Karimi said the economy “has started to lose steam,” noting that rising exports had not translated into stronger domestic purchasing power or investment. “The growth engine is running, but not with optimal torque,” he said.
November 5, 2025, The Jakarta Post
(https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2025/11/05/exports-help-keep-gdp-growth-above-5-in-third-quarter.html)