The World Bank has raised its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026 to 5.2%, according to the October 2026 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Tuesday (October 6, 2026). This figure is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous projection of 4.7% published in the April 2026 edition.
Indonesia’s projected economic growth is also higher than the average for the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, up from the April projection of 4.2%. As defined in the World Bank report, the EAP region comprises Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, and the Pacific island nations.
The World Bank identified the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) as one of the factors supporting the region’s economic growth prospects, particularly in countries involved in AI-related supply chains. “In the East Asia and Pacific region, a surge in global artificial intelligence (AI)-related activity is driving growth in countries participating in AI supply chains, while high energy costs are weighing on growth in other regions, particularly Pacific island economies,” the World Bank stated in its report.
In Indonesia, the World Bank noted that economic growth strengthened in the first half of 2026, rising from 5.1% in 2025 to an average of 5.4% in the first two quarters of 2026, the strongest two-quarter average since 2022. This acceleration was supported by stronger household consumption and a surge in government spending at the beginning of the year. “This increase reflects stronger private consumption and a surge in public spending around the turn of the year. This is due to the earlier onset of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, the advance of public sector holiday bonuses, and the accelerated implementation of the free nutritious meal program, which shifts government spending to the beginning of the fiscal cycle,” the World Bank explained.
However, the institution noted that domestic economic activity began to lose momentum afterward. This was reflected in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which fell to 49.3 in August 2026, and the consumer confidence index, which declined to 116.8 in July 2026. The World Bank also highlighted the widening fiscal deficit, which has raised market concerns about Indonesia’s fiscal outlook and credit rating.
Investor sentiment toward Indonesia deteriorated early in the year, exacerbated by rising global oil prices and disruptions to shipping. In the first quarter of 2026, portfolio investment outflows amounted to 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP). Concerns also emerged that Indonesia could be downgraded to frontier market status by MSCI, a global index provider. Such a downgrade could trigger automatic selling by passive index funds, putting downward pressure on the rupiah and the domestic stock market.
To mitigate market volatility, the government and Bank Indonesia introduced several stabilization measures, including the use of foreign exchange reserves, financial sector reforms, and a cumulative 100-basis-point increase in the policy interest rate in May and June 2026. “These measures helped mitigate the transmission impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation,” the World Bank stated.
Energy subsidy policies that limited fuel price increases also helped maintain price stability. According to the World Bank, inflation declined from 4.8% in February 2026 to 3.4% in July 2026.
October 6, 2026, CNBC Indonesia
(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261006091534-4-773643/bank-dunia-revisi-proyeksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-ri-kini-tembus-52)