Quick Count Results of the Presidential Election in Indonesia: Predictions and Impact on the Economy

On February 14, 2023, Indonesia has just held General Elections, one of which is to elect the President and Vice President 2024-2029. Of all the existing survey institutions, the Prabowo-Gibran pair has a landslide advantage over the other two candidates, namely Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar-Mahfud.

Based on Kompas Research and Development data as of 07.54 PM, Wednesday (14/2/2024), 84.45% of the votes had been received. As a result, Prabowo-Gibran 58.81%, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar 25.12%, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud16.07%. Data Indicator as of 07.55 PM, 89.30% of votes had been received. Prabowo-Gibran won 57.9%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.54%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.56%. Denny JA’s Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) as of 07.57 PM, had 96% of the votes cast. The results showed Prabowo-Gibran 58.17%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.21%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.62%. Charta Politika has also received 62% of the incoming votes as of 07.58 PM, Prabowo-Gibran is again ahead with 57.63%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.9%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.45%. Poltracking with 88.9% of votes received as of 07.57 PM, the result was that Prabowo-Gibran also won 59.31%, Anies-Muhaimin 24.32%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.37%. Politika Research & Consulting (PRC) has also received 88.17% of the incoming votes as of 07.55 PM, Prabowo-Gibran won 59.28%, Anies-Muhaimin 24.22%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.51%.

Based on these interim results, what about the Indonesian economy?

Executive Director of the Segara Research Institute, Piter Abdullah, believes that investors have no problem with whoever is elected president. He said the most important thing is that the election process runs peacefully and does not trigger riots. Moreover, with the Presidential Election running in one round and the absence of demands from other parties, this provides more immediate certainty for investors. That way, investors can immediately take steps for new assignments and invest.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Mohammad Faisal said that in election years many investors hold back and wait when deciding on investments. With elections running in one round, investors can decide their investment steps quickly.

“This means that business decisions, if one round is faster. Previously, many people had to wait and see, their decisions were delayed, delayed, now decisions are made quickly,” said Faisal.

With the interim results of this quick count, investors can also see the direction of government policy in the future. The temporary results for the Prabowo-Gibran pair are superior to those of other candidate pairs. That way, the couple will continue the policies of the Jokowi government era.

In terms of economic growth, Faisal assesses that it will experience a slowdown compared to 2023. He predicts that Indonesia’s economic growth will remain at 4.9-5%.

“Apart from one or two rounds, our economic growth will remain in 2024 like yesterday at 4.9-5%. So, this means there is a slight slowdown from 2023 which was 5.5% yesterday,” he explained.

The results of this quick count are not the official results of the 2024 Election. The official results of the 2024 Election will be known through the recapitulation carried out by the General Election Commission from 15 February to 20 March 2024.

February 14, 2024, detikFinance


Economic Impact of F1 Powerboat on Lake Toba, Indonesia

State-Owned Enterprise Holding (Tourism and its Supporters), PT Aviasi Wisata Indonesia (Persero) or InJourney will again present the F1Powerboat international motorboat racing event on March 2-3, 2024,on Lake Toba. The hope is that F1Powerboat 2024 will have an even greater double impact considering that last year it had an economic impact of up to IDR 1.68 trillion. F1Powerboat 2024 on Lake Toba is planned to be held in Balige, Toba Regency, North Sumatra. A total of 18 international racers from around 10 countries will take part in F1Powerboat on Lake Toba. In order to enliven F1Powerboat, InJourney will present a side event that is no less lively. This time, InJourney will present the Solu Bolon competition between North Sumatra districts and also the First Aquabike Indonesian Championship Series competition which will be attended by approximately 30 Indonesian jetski athletes. Apart from that, the side event will also present a cultural and MSME festival from February 29 to March 3, 2024.

“We are collaborating with all parties to jointly encourage the potential of Lake Toba as one of the 5 Super Priority Tourism Destinations (SPTDs) which continues to be recognized on the international stage. One of the efforts to encourage the tourism sector in Lake Toba is to make it a water sport tourism, ” said the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan in a statement to InJourney, Thursday (8/2/2024).

He added that holding international scale events is a motor and catalyst for the region in carrying out promotions so that in the end it will create an extraordinary multiplier effect for the economic growth of the surrounding community.

“We are grateful that by holding two international events on Lake Toba, namely the F1Powerboat and Aquabike Jetski World Championship, the name of Lake Toba has come back to life. The extraordinary exposure has made Lake Toba included in the New York Times list of must-visit destinations,” added Luhut.

Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandiaga Uno, said that the Government had made massive investments in 5 SPTDs, so sustainable events were needed to continue to increase tourist traffic.

“The presence of the F1Powerboat event has been proven to stimulate the community’s economy and has also become a forum for MSME players to develop their businesses to become bigger. We hope that this year’s F1Powerboat can have a bigger economic impact than last year,” said Sandiaga.

Sandiaga added that in 2023 the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia will increase to 11.7 million. This increase is also supported by interesting and high-quality events, one of which is F1Powerboat.

The Minister of Youth and Sports, Dito Ariotedjo, expressed his pride in the enthusiasm of residents around Lake Toba at previous international events, especially the 2023 Aquabike Jetski World Championship which was able to attract up to 200,000 visitors. This shows the potential for water sports tourism in Indonesia to become a special attraction for the community.

Last year, through the Aquabike Jetski World Championship 2023, Indonesia successfully hosted the international jetski championship. This success was recognized by the Founder of H2O Racing Management, Nicolo Di San Germano, who said that Lake Toba is the best venue in the world as a jetski racing location because of the beauty, splendor and charm of Lake Toba. This year’s F1Powerboat event will also be enlivened by the first Aquabike Indonesian Championship series. In this event, 2 categories will be held, namely endurance and parallel slalom. Around 20 national racers will take part in this event. This opportunity will open up opportunities for athletes to improve their best performance in the next Aquabike World Championship on Lake Toba.

February 8, 2024, detikFinance


Indonesia-Thailand Ready to Strengthen Food Security in the ASEAN Region

The Minister of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia, Andi Amran Sulaiman held a bilateral meeting with the Ambassador of Thailand Papan Disatate. This meeting aims to invite the Thai government together to strengthen food security in the ASEAN regional region. According to him, Thailand and Indonesia both have a lot of experience in making swamps into productive land.
“Thailand turns out to have experience in managing dry and wet land (Swampland and Whiteland). Now we will try collaborating with them because we have managed 400 thousand hectares,” Amran said, in a written statement, Tuesday (11/28/2023).
“We are collaborating. Who knows there is technology that we can use, and our technology can be used as well. We are intended for optimization of swamp land whose potential for the agricultural sector has 10 million hectares,” he continued.
It is known, Indonesia is currently focusing on increasing the production of strategic commodities to reduce import policies that have reached 3.5 million tons. One of them is by optimizing 10 million hectares of swamp land spread throughout Indonesia, between in South Sumatra, South Kalimantan, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Riau, Bengkulu, South Sulawesi and other regions.
“God willing, hopefully in the near future we will optimize all of this because the problem of rice is a global problem is no longer a national problem. We start this December 2023. Now we must collaborate between countries,” Amran said.
Minister of Agriculture added that an increase in production must be done considering that currently the Central Asian region is facing the same crisis threat, the food crisis. In addition, Indonesia is also faced with import policies that must be suppressed through self-sufficiency achievements.
“We do have to suppress imports by increasing production. Therefore, we use water management technology with good water circulation so that rice grows well. I ask for December to meet, we must move quickly because this is a world problem not only Indonesia’s problem,” said Amran.
Amran added that cooperation with swamp land optimization was not only with Thailand, but also several other countries. Meetings with other countries will be scheduled in the near future.
“Our hope is not only an increase in rice production to press imports but also we target rice exports to Thailand. We can prove the export. We must be successful in rice. This can definitely be,” Amran pleaded.
Thailand’s ambassador to the Papan Disjected Indonesia said that collaboration and food cooperation with Indonesia had been carried out for a long time, especially in strengthening food security in the ASEAN region.
As is known, Indonesia and Thailand have an agricultural MoU that includes market and investment access. The MoU according to Papan provides a strong foundation for Thailand to collaborate in various aspects to encourage sustainable agricultural development. Papan added that this meeting also strengthened the commitment between Indonesia and Thailand to have the same attention to the importance of rice as the staple food of the community.

November 28, 2023, detikFinance

Jokowi Inaugurates the Largest Gas Producing Project in Indonesia

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) Mega Project (Migas) Tangguh Train 3 in Bintuni Bay, West Papua, Friday (11/24/2023). This is the largest gas producing field in Indonesia.
“Thank God, today we will inaugurate the Tangguh Train 3 project, the largest natural gas producer in Indonesia. And also, we will be a groundbreaking project (field development), Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and Blue Ammonia projects, and the oil and gas field project Red Kido smoke, “Jokowi said during the inauguration.
Tangguh Train 3 is a national strategic project that consumes an investment of US $ 4.83 billion or IDR 72.45 trillion. It is hoped that this project can increase significant natural gas liquid natural gas (LNG) production.
“This project will increase the annual production capacity of LNG to 11.4 million tons per year and contribute significantly to support the gas production target of 12 cubic feet per day by 2030,” Jokowi said.
As for this investment, Jokowi hopes that the absorption of labor from the surrounding area is large, where currently 70% are workers from the provinces of West Papua and Papua.
“And I hear that there is a new target in 2029 reaching 85 percent (labor) is very good and 105 LNG refinery and maintenance technicians are the sons and daughters of West Papua and Indonesia who have been recruited since high schools undergoing an educational program from BP Berau Ltd,” he said.

November 24, 2023, CNBC Indonesia

Indonesia Looks to Import Cattle, Soy From South Africa

The government has unveiled a plan to import 50,000 cattle and 300,000 tonnes of soy from South Africa to expand bilateral trade in the agricultural sector.
“This is our attempt to deal with the high demand for both commodities,” Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan wrote in a post on his Instagram account on Wednesday, after his meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.
On his working trip to Johannesburg, South Africa, on Tuesday, Luhut expressed his expectation that the import deal could be finalized ahead of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s visit to the 15th BRICS Summit, which will be held from Aug. 22 to 24. BRICS is an acronym denoting the forum’s members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
In Johannesburg, Luhut discussed opportunities for joint ventures in trade, investment and agriculture with President Ramaphosa and members of South Africa’s Cabinet. The meeting also included Trade and Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel, African National Congress (ANC) Economic Transformation Committee chairman Mmamoloko Kubayi as well as Electricity Minister Ramokgopa.
“Hopefully the cattle and soy import plan will lead to an agreement,” Luhut said.
The deal was a boon for both countries, said Luhut, who claimed that imports of both commodities were “absolutely necessary” as domestic beef prices were continuing to rise and the country’s demand for soybeans needed to be met at 3 million tonnes.
According to the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data, Indonesia imported 2.32 million tonnes of soybeans for US$1.63 billion in 2022. The quantity decreased 6.63 percent from the preceding year, when the country imported 2.49 million tonnes of soybeans valued at $1.48 billion.
Despite being an agricultural country, Indonesia has only 142,000 hectares of soy plantations, a fraction of its 10 million hectares of rice paddies. National soy production has declined over the past five years, in line with shrinking areas of soy cultivation nationwide. In 2021, just 200,000 tonnes of the commodity were produced, slightly above the 2020 output, with an average productivity of 1.56 tonnes per hectare.
Meanwhile, 211,430 tonnes of beef were imported in 2021, worth some $785.15 million. From 2017 to 2021, most of Indonesia’s cattle imports came from Australia, but last year, India surpassed Australia as the largest beef exporter to Indonesia.
Indonesia’s total imports in May amounted to $21.28 billion, the highest in the past five months, according to BPS data. Meanwhile, exports in the same month were recorded at $21.72 billion. The import value jumped 38.65 percent from the previous month and was up 14.35 percent from May of last year.

July 13, 2023, The Jakarta Post

Indonesia Will Cooperate With Japan to Prepare Large-scale Railway Plans for Java and Sumatra

Indonesia will be invited to Japan at a meeting of G7 countries. Regarding the meeting, SOE Minister Erick Thohir said that the government was reviewing the development of trains in Java and Sumatra.
“We are discussing because there are plans for the G7 and Indonesia meeting Hiroshima will be invited next month. I have also coordinated with the Minister of Transportation and the Japanese to try to see the blue map of the train in Java and Sumatra,” Erick said at Senen Station, Jakarta, Tuesday (4/18/2023).
Erick said, the train is one of the right solutions to suppress personal use. He said he was optimistic, the cooperative relationship between Indonesia and Japan would be increasingly close. Erick said that Japan was one of the best countries about trains.
“I am very optimistic that we can improve our work relationships with Japan to be one of the solutions because Japan is one of the best in the train,” he said.
Moreover, he said the connection of the train in Sumatra itself has not yet occurred.
“We must see from the short and long term if indeed we want to suppress personal use, one of which is by train. Therefore, the last three years continue to push the improvement of repair facilities on the train,” he said.

April 18, 2023, detikFinance

Indonesia and Germany Signed a Cooperation Agreement Worth IDR 29 Trillion

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto said that Indonesia had signed a cooperation agreement with Germany at the Indonesia-Germany Business Summit. He said there were 25 signed cooperation agreements; 4 of them were Government-to-Business (G-to-B) agreements, and 22 were Business-to-Business Agreements (B-to-B) agreements.
“Thank God, at the Indonesia-Germany Business Summit event, I informed you that 25 cooperation agreements were signed, consisting of 4 Government-to-Business Agreements (G-to-B) and 22 Business-to-Business agreements (B-to-B), “he wrote in his official Instagram caption, @airlanggahartarto_official, quoted Tuesday (4/18/2023).
The total cooperation value reaches around US $1.98 billion, or 1.84 billion Euros, or around IDR 29.4 trillion, with an exchange rate of IDR 14,889. Later, through this cooperation agreement, it is expected to open 80,000 jobs.
“The total value of these agreements is around US $1.98 billion, or 1.84 billion Euros. Which will open up jobs for around 80,000 people,” he continued.
According to him, this is one of the positive things for the Indonesian economy as well as Indonesian youth.
“Surely this will be a positive thing for the national economy, as well as good news to bring jobs for the children of the nation,” he concluded.

April 18, 2023, detikFinance

More International Routes to Bali to Open in March

Bali is moving ahead with restoring tourism as three more airlines reportedly plan to offer direct flights next month.  Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno said on Monday that Netherlands-based KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Singapore-based low-cost carrier Scoot Tigerair, and Australia’s Jet Star airways will each serve between three and four flights a week to Denpasar, Bali. Singapore Airlines became the first foreign airline to restart direct flights to Bali as it reopened its route to the island on Feb. 3. Up until Feb. 18, 639 passengers had arrived on flights to Bali so far this month, with Singapore Airlines contributing 462 of the total.

“This is good news showing the rise of our economy. Tourism and traffic are recovering,” Sandiaga told reporters during a weekly press briefing.

            The news comes after the government cut the mandatory quarantine for foreign travelers from five to three days in a rule that became effective on Feb. 14. The government has announced plans to do away with the travel quarantine altogether in April, on the assumption that the coronavirus pandemic is kept under control. In an arrangement referred to as “warm-up vacations”, some hotels in Bali are also allowing tourists to spend the quarantine on the premises of the resort rather than being confined to their room.

COVID-19 cases in Indonesia are projected to peak in February and to drop in the following months. On Monday, the daily toll of newly discovered cases fell to 34,418, marking a significant decrease from 64,718 on Feb. 16. Sandiaga revealed that the government was working on more travel bubble arrangements and would open direct flights also to other airports around the country, including those in Manado, North Sulawesi, as well as in Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Medan.

 In the same briefing, Sandiaga said the government had also been focusing on keeping hotel and homestay rates under control following reports of irregular price hikes ahead of the 2022 MotoGP motorcycle race, which will be staged in Mandalika on the island of Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). Lastly, the ministry also announced its future tourism plans for Indonesia’s future capital city to be built in East Kalimantan. The concept would revolve around ecotourism with the aim to open new tourism possibilities while also preserving East Kalimantan’s nature and culture.

Feb 22, 2022, The Jakarta Post


Indonesia is on a Major Defense Spending Spree

            Indonesia made major purchase announcements of fighter jets from the United States and French manufacturers this week in the biggest military buying spree in recent years, raising concerns over government spending as the nation rations funds to recover from COVID-19. The procurement plans spotlight a growing arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, following the surprise announcement last year of a security partnership between the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

            The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), an agency under the US Department of Defense, announced the possible sale of F-15ID aircraft and related equipment to Indonesia in a deal valued at up to US$13.9 billion on Thursday, just hours after Indonesia and France signed a purchase agreement for the first six of 42 Rafale fighter jets as part of a contract worth of $8.1 billion. Boeing is the principal contractor for the F-15 jets, the Pentagon’s cooperation agency said in a statement. The package would include 36 jets, spare engines, radar, night vision goggles training, and technical support. The DSCA notified the US Congress of the possible sale on Thursday.

            Military analyst Connie Rahakundini Bakrie said that while the purchase of the Rafales from France has been finalized, Prabowo still needs to explain to the public about the high cost of procuring advanced military equipment at this time. She said the ministry owed it to the people to explain how the government would be paying for up to 78 new fighter jets from France and the US. “Prabowo must explain why he chose these jet planes, what the interoperability will be like, as well as what maintenance, repair, and operational components must be built around them, alongside the logistics system. Shopping is easy, and even though this will be paid for with foreign loans, it is still coming out of taxpayers’ money,” she said.

            While Indonesia’s defense spending has increased significantly in the last few years, the portion of the defense budget to gross domestic product has remained stagnant at 0.7 to 0.8 percent in the last 15 years, argued Andi Widjajanto, senior analyst in political security at Laboratorium Indonesia 2045. As such, he said Indonesia was aiming to maintain its current force and modernize the obsolete weapons systems, but Indonesia will not have any significant breakthrough in its posture.

Feb 12, 2022, The Jakarta Post


Indonesian Economy (GDP) Grows 3.69% in 2021

            The Indonesian economy succeeded in the fourth quarter of 2021 being able to grow above 5%. This makes the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country throughout 2021 grow positively in 2021, after the previous year it grew negative (contracted). On Monday (7/2/2022), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced Indonesia’s economic growth data for the fourth quarter of 2021. Throughout October-December 2021, Indonesia’s GDP grew 1.06% compared to the previous quarter (quarter-to-quarter/qtq). Compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 (year-on-year/yoy), the Indonesian economy grew by 5.02%. This brings economic growth throughout 2021 to 3.69%.

            For the record, the market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country in October-December 2021 will grow by 0.98% qtq. Meanwhile, YoY economic growth is estimated at 5.06%. Thus, economic growth throughout 2021 is estimated at 3.65%. Much better than 2020, which was minus 2.07%.

Feb 07, 2022, CNBC Indonesia