Economist Analysis: Indonesian Economy Predicts Not Reaching 5% in 2024?

The Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) predicts that Indonesia’s economic growth will not reach 5% in 2024. There are a number of reasons why.

“So, if INDEF predicts, it is not pessimistic but realistic, for 2024 economic growth is predicted to be 5.2% but INDEF predicts only 4.8% considering global and domestic conditions. This is moderate. Not pessimistic,” said INDEF Executive Director Esther Sri Astuti in the agenda. detikcom Leaders Forum “Monitoring Opportunities in the Midst of Economic Uncertainty at Samisara Ballroom, Sopo Del Tower, South Jakarta, Thursday (14/3/2024). This event is supported by PT KB Bank Tbk, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk.

Esther then explained that one of the factors that prevents economic growth from reaching 5% is household consumption. He explained that it is common knowledge that Indonesia’s economic growth is driven by household consumption, the amount currently is around 53% of the total economic growth cake.

The problem, he explained, was that Indonesia faced various challenges in the household economic aspect. Food prices are rising, on the other hand, the minimal supply of basic commodities is not in line with high public demand.

“Supply less demand still causes prices to rise. Moreover, supply is short, demand increases plus there are seasonal factors such as elections, Ramadan and Eid,” he explained.

For this reason, he said that the erosion of consumer purchasing power has also caused the household consumption sector to slow down. Therefore, he emphasized that INDEF indicated that Indonesia would experience slowing economic growth in the near future.

“Insufficient supply and increasing demand reduce consumer purchasing power and slow down the consumption sector. And finally, because 53% of economic growth is driven by the household consumption sector, our prediction is a slowdown in economic growth,” he concluded.

On the other hand, General Chair of the Indonesian Entrepreneurs Association (APINDO) Shinta Widjaja Kamdani, said that 2024 is still full of uncertainty. Even though the economic growth target is in the range of 4.8-5.2%, no one knows for sure whether this target can be met or not.

“Why is the theme pessimistic, uncertainty? I think it is appropriate because this year is full of uncertainty. So, we may predict the target, we are in the range of 4.8% to 5.2%, but in reality nobody will know for sure,” he said at the detikcom Leaders event Forum ‘Monitoring Opportunities in the Midst of Economic Uncertainty’ This event is supported by PT KB Bank Tbk, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk, Thursday (14/3/2024).

Shinta thinks this is the first time a prediction has been made without any confidence. “This is the first time we have made a prediction. We are not sure about the prediction we made,” he said.

Meanwhile, BCA VP Economic Research, Agus Salim Hardjodinoto believes that the economic growth target of around 5% is relatively feasible. However, there need to be certain components to be able to achieve this target.

“Indeed, there will be data, there is an opportunity for this growth of around 5% to be relatively feasible. We hope that there will be interesting things amidst this uncertainty that can be close to the government’s target,” he concluded.

March 14, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7240785/ekonom-prediksi-ekonomi-ri-tak-sampai-5-di-2024-ini-alasannya)

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7240712/pengusaha-ekonom-pesimistis-soal-ekonomi-ri-bisa-5-tahun-ini)

Indonesia Earns Tourism Foreign Exchange in 2023 IDR 218 Trillion

Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy (Menparekraf) Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno revealed the performance of the Key Performance Indicators (IKU) of the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy for 2023. It was recorded that the realization of the Indonesian tourism foreign exchange value in 2023 reached US$ 14 billion or the equivalent of IDR 218.4 trillion (exchange rate IDR 15.600). This was conveyed by Sandiaga in a Joint Working Meeting with Commission X DPR RI. From this figure, the performance achievement for foreign exchange value reached 197.74% or far exceeded the target which was only in the range of US$ 7.08-9.99 billion. However, this data is still temporary and not final.

“We can say that tourism foreign exchange reaches US$ 14 billion. GDP contribution is already 3.9%,” said Sandi, quoted from the TVR Parliament live YouTube broadcast, Wednesday (13/3/2024).

Furthermore, the realized export value of creative economy products in 2023 was recorded at US$ 23.96 billion or IDR 373.77 trillion. Its performance achievement has only reached 88.91% or has not succeeded in exceeding its target of US$ 26.95 billion. Even so, the added value of the creative economy posted extraordinary growth. The added value of the creative economy reached IDR 1,414.77 trillion or 110.44%. This amount exceeds the previous target of IDR 1,281 trillion.

“This is a fantastic figure showing that the creative economy is the locomotive of Indonesia’s economic future,” he said.

Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourists also exceeded the original target of 6-8.5 million visits and has now reached 11.68 million visits with a performance achievement of 194.67%. Meanwhile, for the number of domestic or local tourists, based on temporary data until November 2023 the figure reached 749.11 million trips. This figure is only 62.43% of the target of 1.2-1.4 billion trips.

“We also hope that this will continue to increase while we improve the calculation of the movement of domestic tourists so that it is in line with the targets set,” he said.

Sandiaga further said that the Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI) ranking had succeeded in reaching the target, namely in the range of 29-34. Then the number of tourism workers succeeded in exceeding the target of 23 million people and has now reached 24.42 million people. Then the creative economy workforce reached 24.92 million, also exceeding the target.

“In total, almost 50 million workers are produced by our tourism and creative sector,” he added.

Sandiaga said, of the total of 9 main performance indicators that have been mentioned, there are some that are still simple data. Then there are also those who are still very far from the target set for 2023, namely the number of domestic tourist movements.

“Of course, we have to look at this again in detail because the 2023 foreign tourist travel target is 1.2-1.4 billion trips, so it has almost doubled. And if we look at the achievements, it is still very far away, even though the number of movements realized “This foreign tourist attraction has exceeded the target compared to the previous one, namely around 113.5%,” he concluded.

March 13, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7239146/ri-raup-devisa-pariwisata-di-2023-rp-218-t-sandiaga-fantastis)

Indonesian Furniture Sells Well in Europe and the United States for up to IDR 4.6 Trillion

Indonesian furniture and handicraft products have long been known and have attracted attention from local buyers to various countries. This is proven by the large number of buyers at the Indonesia International Furniture Expo (IFEX) 2024 exhibition. The international exhibition, which was held from 29 February to 3 March 2024, attracted 13,730 international buyers from 117 countries in the world. IFEX 2024 recorded on-site transactions of US$ 300 million or IDR 4.6 trillion (exchange rate IDR 15,494).

The countries with the most buyers are Europe, Australia, China and the United States, as well as additional developing countries such as India, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

“We see the transactions that occurred during the exhibition as a realization of the positive economic growth target that we mentioned at the beginning. In the midst of current global economic conditions, these results prove that our furniture industry is able to make a significant contribution to the national economy,” said the General Chair of the Industrial Association Indonesian Furniture and Crafts (HIMKI), Abdul Sobur in his statement, quoted on Saturday (9/3/2024).

He is quite confident that next year the IFEX exhibition will again attract more participants and buyers. IFEX 2025 will be held again next year on March 6-9, 2025.

On this occasion, Sobur also reiterated the importance of the government’s role in supporting the anti-export policy of furniture raw materials, including rattan. “This is an effort to maintain the availability of our raw materials and ensure that our industry will continue to grow and develop,” he said.

It cannot be denied that the skilled hands and high creativity of Indonesian craftsmen are able to make very unique furniture and craft products from quality materials. Like the wood products from Bantul which provide TV table furniture, cupboards and mirrors from 3 types of wood, namely mango, suar and mindi which come from Klaten because they are famous for their strength and seem more natural, this product has penetrated the Australian and European markets.

Then the Lukis Chair rattan chair is part of the collection from the Cappellini furniture brand in Italy because it is minimalist and eccentric. As well as lots of distinctive shaped furniture such as bedroom lamps, hand-painted porcelain flower vases, sofas and others. The consistency of craftsmen in prioritizing the quality of their products is the attraction of Indonesian furniture and craft products so that they are popular with local and international visitors.

Based on exhibition experience in previous years, IFEX organizers released data that during the exhibition, products made in Indonesia were not only sought after by buyers from various cities in Indonesia, more than 30% of buyers came from France, Italy, England, Korea, Singapore, India, and other countries including America.

March 9, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/industri/d-7233748/mebel-ri-laris-diborong-eropa-as-hingga-rp-4-6-t)

United States Grants IDR 32 Billion to IKN’s New Capital City Project

The United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) provided grant funds of US$ 2 million or the equivalent of IDR 32 billion (exchange rate IDR 16,000) to the Republic of Indonesia for the development of the Archipelago Capital City (IKN). USTDA has held a workshop with the IKN Authority on Monday to Wednesday, March 4-6, 2024. USTAD Director Enoh T. Ebong said that his party provides support for the sustainable development of IKN.

“USTDA is committed to providing grant funds amounting to US$ 2 million in the form of technical assistance, technical specifications, procurement documents, and strategies to develop cities with smart, sustainable and green infrastructure,” said Ebong, in a written statement, quoted Friday (8/ 3/2024).

USTDA also ensures that its assistant will use a green and environmentally friendly approach. This is in line with the development principles of the IKN Authority.

“We are impressed with the vision and development procedures that OIKN has. Of course, in every collaboration we build in infrastructure development projects, we always consider environmental, social and human aspects through studies we have carried out previously,” he said.

On the same occasion, the Head of the Archipelago Capital Authority (IKN), Bambang Susantono, appreciated the collaboration that had been established with USTDA. According to Bambang, to build a smart city like Nusantara, it is necessary to have partners who have the latest technology.

“As time progresses, the technology we use will be abandoned. Therefore, collaboration with the United States through USTDA will not only develop business and academic networks, but also in terms of technology,” said Bambang.

Deputy for Green and Digital Transformation of the IKN Authority, Mohammed Ali Berawi, added that IKN is opening up the widest possible forms of investment for investors with the principles of green, smart and sustainable development in the archipelago.

“We open investment priorities for investors who have smart technology ownership and green commitment. This includes smart governance, transportation and mobility, smart life, natural resources and energy, smart industry and human resources, as well as smart environment and infrastructure ,” explained Ali.

March 8, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/infrastruktur/d-7231544/as-hibahkan-rp-32-miliar-ke-proyek-ikn)

Indonesia and South Korea Collaborate to Produce Human Resources for the Steel Industry

Indonesia and South Korea are collaborating again. This time, the two countries are collaborating to produce human resources (HR) in order to develop the national steel industry. KITECH Korea (KPIC) together with KRAKATAU POSCO and Banten Polytechnic signed an MoU to develop and distribute technical human resources between three parties as part of the ODA (Official Development Assistance) plan on Tuesday (5/3). ODA is part of industrial cooperation between the two countries based on the Korea-Indonesia Summit which will take place in 2023.

KPIC (Korea Ppuri Industry Center) is tasked with promoting ODA projects to develop industrial human resources in Indonesia, this is an effort by the Korean government to support ODA in the field of steel industry technology in Indonesia. This information was revealed by KPIC Main Director Kim Hyun Jong.

“This training program is expected to help the growth of the Indonesian steel industry by cultivating more skilled steel workers. Once again, Krakatau Posco is honored to participate in strategic cooperation between the two government agencies in the field of human resource development,” said Kim Hyun Jong, in official statement, Tuesday (5/3/2024).

This collaboration also aims to accelerate the implementation of education at the Banten Petrochemical Industry Polytechnic. The focus is on preparing a competent technology workforce.

“We will develop human resource development programs and collaborate in providing equipment and supporting infrastructure. The quality of human resources is very important for the success of the nation’s future,” continued Dr. Kim Hyun Jong.

Director of HR & GA KRAKATAU POSCO, Dicky Mardiana then said that his party was determined to support the formation of superior human resources through the formation of a steel industry class. He said vocational education institutions have a vital role in promoting international collaboration and increasing contributions to social development.

Therefore, the availability of appropriate personnel and platforms to prepare for the implementation of vocational education, as well as providing facilities and infrastructure that support teaching and learning activities and vocational education programs, was explained by Dicky as important.

“It is hoped that this collaboration will produce a young generation of Banten who are qualified and able to advance the industry in the future,” he explained.

Dicky explained that the industrial class would implement a curriculum tailored to the needs of the steel industry. Cooperation will be optimally encouraged to improve the quality of human resources, especially for local communities as a step to overcome labor shortages. According to Dicky, local communities must be prepared to face increasingly fierce competition in the steel industry which requires more qualified workers.

March 5, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/industri/d-7226854/ri-gandeng-korea-cetak-sdm-buat-industri-baja)

Indonesia Ready to Produce EV Batteries in April, Exported to Korea-India

The Ministry of Investment or the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) revealed that Indonesia will soon produce battery cells through the PT HLI Green Power factory with a capacity of 10 Giga Watt hour (GWh), the first in Southeast Asia. Special Staff for Regional Relations at the Ministry of Investment, Tina Talisa, revealed that the first battery cell factory in Indonesia will start the first phase of production in April 2024.

Later, 90% of the battery cell products will be exported to Korea and India. “In April, the HLI Green Power factory will start mass production and more than 90% of the products produced will be exported, especially to Korea, then to India,” he said on the official Instagram account of the Ministry of Investment, quoted Thursday (29/2/2024).

Meanwhile, he revealed that after the factory carries out its operational activities, the second phase of production is also targeted to start in 2024.

In the future, with a capacity of 10 GWh, if it has maximum production, it will produce 32.6 million battery cell units. “The battery cells produced in this factory are 81 Ampere hours or 300 watthours. From the full capacity, 10 GWh will produce 32.6 million cell units. battery,” he explained.

Tina revealed that the materials used to produce domestic battery cells are nickel, manganese, cobalt and lithium.

Apart from that, he said that more than 90% of the workforce working at the battery cell factory were local Indonesian workers. “Most of the workers who work at this company are more than 90% local Indonesian workers, including young engineers,” said Tina.

February 29, 2024, CNBC Indonesia

(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20240229112516-4-518547/pabrik-baterai-ev-pertama-di-asean-bakal-meluncur-di-ri-tahun-ini)

Indonesia’s Active Contribution in Arranging International Maritime Sector Regulations

Ministry of Transportation Cq. The Directorate General of Sea Transportation continues to strive to show its active role in preparations for the 2025 IMO Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS).

Director General of Sea Transportation, Capt. Antoni Arif Priadi, in his briefing emphasized the importance of Indonesia, as the largest archipelagic country in the world, to ensure the security and safety of maritime activities. He said that Indonesia’s commitment to the principles and conventions set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) had not changed.

“Indonesia recognizes the key role played by the IMO in setting global standards for the safety, security and environmental performance of international shipping,” said Antoni in a press release, written Wednesday (28/2/2024).

Capt. Antoni also appreciated Indonesia for being re-elected as a member of Category “C” on the IMO Council.

“This places Indonesia in a position to actively contribute to the formation of international policies and regulations governing the maritime industry,” he added.

Indonesia’s experience in the Voluntary IMO Member State Audit Scheme (VIMSAS) in 2014 has shaped Indonesia’s commitment to maritime safety. Lessons learned then have shaped Indonesian policy and practice, leading to improvements in maritime infrastructure and the national regulatory framework.

Facing IMSAS in 2025, the Director General of Maritime Transportation emphasized the importance of Indonesia’s preparations in demonstrating Indonesia’s continued commitment to the highest standards of maritime safety, security and environmental protection.

“The Mock Audit of IMSAS which begins today provides a valuable opportunity for Indonesia to evaluate the extent of its readiness to face IMSAS. For this reason, we must approach IMSAS with a comprehensive and proactive mindset, ensuring that our maritime administration fully complies with IMO conventions,” he stressed.

Furthermore, preparation through a Mock Audit not only involves a thorough review of existing systems but also the identification and implementation of necessary improvements.

“It is hoped that we can all work together, participate actively, and uphold the principle of openness so that all deficiencies and findings can be identified from the start and corrected as soon as possible,” he concluded.

The Mock Audit activity was also attended by IMSAS Mock Audit Lead Auditor, Mr. Abdul Hannan from AMSA Australia served as the Auditor team leader and assisted Indonesia in this activity.

February 28, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7217160/ri-berkontribusi-aktif-susun-regulasi-internasional-sektor-maritim-begini-caranya)

SMI Collaborates with European Banks to Develop Sustainable Infrastructure in Indonesia

PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (Persero) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with European Investment Bank Global (EIB Global) for sustainable infrastructure development in Indonesia. One form of this collaboration is exploring loans worth a maximum of 500 million Euros or around IDR 8.4 trillion which will be used for various financing needs.

“The funds that will be distributed by PT SMI will later target private and public entities involved in climate change control projects including New Renewable Energy, sustainable transportation facilities and other infrastructure that increases resilience to the impacts of climate change,” wrote PT SMI in official statement, Wednesday (28/2/2024).

PT SMI and EIB will also explore collaboration in the form of project origination, knowledge sharing, capacity building and technical assistance, related to the energy transition in Indonesia. This is said to be in line with PT SMI’s partnership with various local and international banks/financial institutions to develop capital from the government without relying solely on the capital market.

“PT SMI is very open to exploring more collaborations in the future to accelerate infrastructure development in Indonesia,” continued PT SMI.

The President Director of PT SMI, Edwin Syahruzad, welcomed this collaboration with EIB Global. According to him, EIB’s focus on environmentally friendly and sustainable projects is in line with PT SMI’s priorities.

“We are pleased with the EIB’s intention to work together with PT SMI in this matter. We believe that with EIB’s support, PT SMI can grow further and continue to be a leader not only in the energy transition sector, but also in the wider scope of sustainable infrastructure development in Indonesia,” said Edwin.

EIB also supports PT SMI’s efforts in helping the Indonesian Government to achieve the Net Zero Emission target by 2060. EIB Vice President for the Southeast Asia Region, Robert de Groot, said that Indonesia has gained momentum to create sustainable and environmentally friendly growth.

Together with PT SMI, EIB Global is committed to supporting and accelerating the energy transition in Indonesia.

“Therefore, today’s signing of the MoU marks a significant step towards achieving this goal, as it unites our efforts and allows us to achieve much more,” said Robert.

EIB Global’s commitment to encourage investment in change mitigation and resilience. climate, is part of the European Union’s Global Gateway initiative. The European Union Ambassador to Indonesia, Denis Chaibi, stated that the MoU between PT SMI and EIB is a real illustration of the European Union’s efforts to encourage sustainable investment in Indonesia.

“This also shows the European Union’s ongoing commitment to fulfilling its promise for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). This partnership requires coordinated efforts to build energy infrastructure projects and mobilize funding. This loan will be an important contribution in Team Europe’s support for the energy transition in Indonesia ,” he concluded.

February 28, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-7216087/smi-gandeng-bank-eropa-buat-kembangkan-infrastruktur-berkelanjutan-di-ri)

Indonesia Speeds Up Dam Construction, Catching Up With China and South Korea

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) stated that Indonesia must now focus on managing water for the future. One of them is building dams to maximize water use. He said that until now Indonesia seemed to be lagging behind in building dams to maximize water use. From Sabang to Merauke there are a total of 4,400 rivers, but so far only 292 dams have been built.

Jokowi compared it with other countries, such as South Korea to China. In South Korea there are a total of 20 thousand dams in operation, while in China there are more, up to 98 thousand dams.

“We have 4,400 rivers, but we only have 292 dams. To illustrate, China has 98 thousand dams, South Korea has approximately 20 thousand dams,” explained Jokowi in his statement, Friday (23/2/2024).

Jokowi conveyed this when inaugurating the Lolak Dam in North Sulawesi. This dam was built with a budget of IDR 2.02 trillion with a multitude of functions that can be optimized.

Apart from being a raw water supply with a discharge of 500 liters per second and a reach of up to 10 kilometers, Jokowi explained that this dam could act as a flood barrier. This dam is expected to reduce the risk of flooding by up to 29% in the surrounding area, a significant improvement compared to previous conditions.

“It can reduce flooding by up to 29%, if previously there was a flood, then there was a dam, it would be reduced,” said Jokowi.

Then, this dam can increase agricultural productivity around the dam area. With a capacity of 16 million cubic meters, the Lolak Dam can irrigate an agricultural area of 2,200 hectares.

Lolak Dam can also function as a hydroelectric power plant with an energy potential of 2.43 MW. Not only that, the Lolak Dam will also become a new tourism destination in the Bolaang Mongondow area, and the ex-excavated land can be used as a productive fruit forest.

February 23, 2024, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/infrastruktur/d-7208009/jokowi-sebut-ri-ketinggalan-bangun-bendungan-kalah-dengan-china-korsel)

Swiftnomics: The Promising Impact of Concerts. How About Indonesia?

Taylor Swift held international concerts in several neighboring countries such as Singapore and Australia, but not Indonesia. The government responded by issuing the Indonesia Tourism Fund. The Eras Tour concerts were held by Taylor Swift in several countries. In contrast to Coldplay’s concert which stopped in several countries in Southeast Asia, Swift’s concert this year only stopped in Singapore.

International concerts are said to have a massive economic impact, including Taylor Swift’s concerts. How could it not be, Swift is known to have loyal fans spread across many countries. His concerts in several countries that have been held are also often attended by audiences from various other countries.

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin accused the Singapore government of taking special steps towards the organizers of The Eras Tour. He accused Singapore of offering 2-3 million USD or around IDR 31 billion – IDR 46 billion to get exclusivity for Swift’s concert in the Southeast Asia region, which was only held in Singapore.

Apart from that, the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno spoke to Bloomberg Television regarding this matter. He uploaded snippets of the conversation to his Instagram account @sandiuno.

“We need several incentives first, we need what the Singapore government and the Australian government did, namely bringing in Taylor Swift. We need ‘Swiftnomics’ (referring to the economy resulting from the impact of Taylor Swift’s concert) in Indonesian tourism,” he said.

Sandiaga Uno also thinks that this needs to be used as momentum for cooperation with ASEAN countries. The thing is, according to him, big concerts like The Eras Tour have really tough competition to steal Taylor Swift’s heart.

Sandiaga Uno also said that the Singapore government was willing to pay a high price for six days of Taylor Swift concerts. No joke, the Singapore government has the capital to carry out Swiftonomics which has a huge impact on the country. In fact, if you calculate it, Singapore could get revenue of USD 600 million or more than IDR 9.3 trillion for the six days of Taylor Swift’s concert there.

Based on this, the Indonesia Tourism Fund was also launched by Sandiaga to be able to attract various international events.

“And I’m sure we will start with the Indonesia Tourism Fund. It is hoped that with this tourism fund we can bid for good events in the coming years. Not only music, but also sporting events, we need to present good cultural events in Indonesia to attract good quality tourists to visit Indonesia, stay longer and have an impact, with more dollars spent into the local economy,” he explained.

He explained in his Instagram post that Indonesia not being chosen to host The Eras Tour concert was a lesson in itself. Then IDR 2 trillion will be disbursed into tourism funds this year.

“This year the government will disburse 2 trillion Rupiah through special tourism funds or the Indonesia Tourism Fund (ITF). These funds will be used to organize local and international events, with the hope of increasing the number of tourists so that they can have a wider job creation impact again,” he wrote.

February 22, 2024, detikTravel & detikPop

(https://www.detik.com/pop/music/d-7207228/taylor-swift-dimonopoli-sandiaga-uno-ajak-negara-asean-kolaborasi)

(https://travel.detik.com/travel-news/d-7206886/taylor-swift-tak-mampir-pemerintah-sodorkan-tourism-fund-rp-2-triliun)