Quick Count Results of the Presidential Election in Indonesia: Predictions and Impact on the Economy

On February 14, 2023, Indonesia has just held General Elections, one of which is to elect the President and Vice President 2024-2029. Of all the existing survey institutions, the Prabowo-Gibran pair has a landslide advantage over the other two candidates, namely Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar-Mahfud.

Based on Kompas Research and Development data as of 07.54 PM, Wednesday (14/2/2024), 84.45% of the votes had been received. As a result, Prabowo-Gibran 58.81%, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar 25.12%, and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud16.07%. Data Indicator as of 07.55 PM, 89.30% of votes had been received. Prabowo-Gibran won 57.9%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.54%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.56%. Denny JA’s Lembaga Survey Indonesia (LSI) as of 07.57 PM, had 96% of the votes cast. The results showed Prabowo-Gibran 58.17%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.21%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.62%. Charta Politika has also received 62% of the incoming votes as of 07.58 PM, Prabowo-Gibran is again ahead with 57.63%, Anies-Muhaimin 25.9%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.45%. Poltracking with 88.9% of votes received as of 07.57 PM, the result was that Prabowo-Gibran also won 59.31%, Anies-Muhaimin 24.32%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.37%. Politika Research & Consulting (PRC) has also received 88.17% of the incoming votes as of 07.55 PM, Prabowo-Gibran won 59.28%, Anies-Muhaimin 24.22%, and Ganjar-Mahfud 16.51%.

Based on these interim results, what about the Indonesian economy?

Executive Director of the Segara Research Institute, Piter Abdullah, believes that investors have no problem with whoever is elected president. He said the most important thing is that the election process runs peacefully and does not trigger riots. Moreover, with the Presidential Election running in one round and the absence of demands from other parties, this provides more immediate certainty for investors. That way, investors can immediately take steps for new assignments and invest.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Mohammad Faisal said that in election years many investors hold back and wait when deciding on investments. With elections running in one round, investors can decide their investment steps quickly.

“This means that business decisions, if one round is faster. Previously, many people had to wait and see, their decisions were delayed, delayed, now decisions are made quickly,” said Faisal.

With the interim results of this quick count, investors can also see the direction of government policy in the future. The temporary results for the Prabowo-Gibran pair are superior to those of other candidate pairs. That way, the couple will continue the policies of the Jokowi government era.

In terms of economic growth, Faisal assesses that it will experience a slowdown compared to 2023. He predicts that Indonesia’s economic growth will remain at 4.9-5%.

“Apart from one or two rounds, our economic growth will remain in 2024 like yesterday at 4.9-5%. So, this means there is a slight slowdown from 2023 which was 5.5% yesterday,” he explained.

The results of this quick count are not the official results of the 2024 Election. The official results of the 2024 Election will be known through the recapitulation carried out by the General Election Commission from 15 February to 20 March 2024.

February 14, 2024, detikFinance