Indonesia’s 6% Growth Ambition Hinges on 7% Investment Growth

Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara emphasized that Indonesia’s economic fundamentals continue to support investor confidence amid global uncertainty. The government is targeting economic growth of 6% by 2027, with investment serving as a key driver. Suahasil conveyed this message at the Ministry of Finance’s Investor Meeting with Bank Indonesia and Danantara, organized by Deutsche Bank in Thailand on October 13, 2026. He explained that investor confidence is underpinned by the credibility of the State Budget (APBN), macroeconomic stability, and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies.

From a domestic economic perspective, Indonesia’s inflation rate stood at 3.3% at the end of September 2026, while the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in expansionary territory at 52.4. The country’s trade balance also recorded another surplus, reflecting positive developments in the external sector. Nevertheless, the government remains vigilant about global risks, including fragmentation in world trade, commodity price volatility, and elevated global interest rates, all of which could affect the domestic economy. Amid these challenges, Suahasil reaffirmed the government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal discipline and keeping the state budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

According to Suahasil, fiscal policy must remain flexible enough to respond to economic pressures without compromising the fiscal space needed to address future challenges. “Fiscal policy must be able to respond to various pressures, whether from geopolitics, trade, market volatility, or domestic prices, without eroding fiscal buffers for the future,” he said, as quoted on Thursday (October 15, 2026).

The government, he added, is seeking to balance the need to stimulate economic growth and protect the public with the imperative of maintaining fiscal sustainability. To accelerate growth in 2027, investment has been positioned as one of the main drivers. Under the 2027 State Budget, economic growth is targeted at 6%, while investment is expected to grow by at least 7%. These targets will be supported by closer coordination between fiscal policy, Danantara’s strategic investments, and private sector participation. The government also aims to ensure that incoming investment not only stimulates short-term growth but also strengthens the foundations of the national economy over the long term.

Suminto, Director General of Financing and Risk Management at the Ministry of Finance, added that the government’s efforts extend beyond attracting investment to Indonesia; they also focus on building and sustaining investor confidence. He outlined several measures to maintain market confidence. First, the government seeks to preserve economic credibility, performance, and stability across the fiscal, monetary, and financial sectors while regularly communicating economic conditions and policy directions to investors in a coordinated manner. Second, it aims to uphold market discipline and integrity to support the development of deeper, more active, and more liquid financial markets. Third, it seeks to deepen domestic financial markets by strengthening the participation of institutional and retail investors. These measures are expected to increase liquidity and enhance the resilience of Indonesia’s financial markets amid global volatility.

Through credible state budget management, macroeconomic stability, and a stronger investment ecosystem, the government aims to sustain investor confidence and achieve its national economic growth targets.

October 15, 2026, CNBC Indonesia(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261015063709-4-776306/ri-bidik-ekonomi-tumbuh-6-investasi-harus-ngebut-7)

Tourism Powers Indonesia’s Economy: Here’s How Much It Contributes

The government continues to sustain Indonesia’s tourism growth while expanding business and investment opportunities. This effort is underpinned by the country’s strong economic performance. Indonesia’s solid economic fundamentals are crucial to developing the tourism sector. In the first half of 2026, the Indonesian economy grew by 5.45%, the highest rate among G20 countries. Inflation remained under control at 3.28% in September 2026, while investment rose by 7.2% to IDR 1,010.6 trillion, with more than half of the investment realized outside Java. Economic growth that has remained above 5% for five consecutive quarters reflects the resilience of domestic demand and sustained investment, both of which support national tourism development.

“For the tourism sector, economic stability is crucial because stronger purchasing power encourages domestic travel, while investment supports infrastructure development, accommodation, and service improvements,” said Deputy Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Dradjad Hari Wibowo in a written statement on Thursday (October 15, 2026).

Amid mounting pressures on the global tourism industry, Indonesia’s tourism sector has demonstrated relative resilience. In the first half of 2026, international tourist arrivals worldwide grew by only 0.4%, while the Middle East recorded a 22% decline and Southeast Asia experienced a 1% contraction. In contrast, Indonesia recorded growth of 5.71%. From January to August 2026, international tourist arrivals reached 10.58 million, an increase of 5.38% compared with the same period in the previous year, bringing arrivals close to 99% of pre-pandemic levels. This achievement demonstrates that Indonesia’s tourism recovery is continuing and approaching a significant milestone.

Tourism’s contribution is also reflected in domestic economic growth, foreign exchange earnings, and job creation. Throughout 2025, domestic tourist trips reached 1.2 billion, generating US$18.28 billion in tourism foreign exchange earnings and supporting 25.91 million jobs. The sector contributed 3.97% directly to gross domestic product (GDP), while tourism investment reached IDR 73.55 trillion.

This positive momentum continued into 2026. By August, domestic tourist trips had reached 842.15 million, an increase of 4.29%, while tourism foreign exchange earnings totaled US$8.43 billion in the first half of the year. Investment in the tourism sector also grew by 16.64%, more than double the national investment growth rate. These figures further underscore tourism’s potential to drive job creation, regional development, and inclusive economic growth.

To maximize this potential, the government has positioned tourism as a strategic driver of economic growth, in line with President Prabowo Subianto’s Asta Cita, or Eight Aspirations. For 2026, the tourism sector is targeted to attract 16–17.6 million international tourist visits and contribute 4.5–4.7% to GDP. Achieving these targets requires coordinated policies that stimulate demand while improving the quality of tourism services. To stimulate demand and strengthen connectivity, the government is preparing an economic stimulus package worth IDR 26.34 trillion. The package includes transportation discounts and tax incentives to encourage domestic travel. Additional measures include income tax relief for 552,000 hospitality workers, annual skills development programs for 400,000 tourism workers, and expanded visa access and air connectivity. These initiatives aim to improve the affordability, accessibility, and quality of tourism services.

“We also want to highlight the urgency of innovation and efficiency in Indonesia’s tourism sector. The government will develop an ecosystem that encourages tourism businesses to create innovative products at competitive prices,” Dradjad added.

October 15, 2026, detikFinance

(https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-8709204/pariwisata-andalan-ri-genjot-ekonomi-segini-kontribusinya)

Indonesia Kicks Off 11 Downstream Projects Valued at IDR 180 Trillion

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated downstreaming projects worth US$10.2 billion (IDR 180 trillion) at the Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP) in Central Halmahera Regency, North Maluku. The inauguration included the launch of 11 downstreaming projects and the initial export of electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The 11 projects comprise the commercialization of four industrial projects and the groundbreaking of seven new industrial projects, all located within the IWIP area.

“Today, we will launch the initial export of electric vehicle batteries. We will also launch 11 downstreaming projects, consisting of the commercialization of four industrial projects and the commencement of construction of seven new industrial projects in the Weda Bay Industrial Park area,” Indonesian President Prabowo said during the inauguration on Thursday (October 8, 2026).

Prabowo congratulated all parties and stakeholders, both domestic and international, for placing their trust in Indonesia and providing opportunities to work together to build shared prosperity.

“Ladies and gentlemen, what we have achieved over the past few years is truly something to be proud of. Therefore, I hereby reaffirm the Indonesian government’s commitment to respecting and safeguarding all investments made in Indonesia, regardless of their origin,” Prabowo stated.

Minister of Investment and Head of the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Rosan P. Roeslani explained that the inaugurated projects are strategic developments within the IWIP area and form part of Indonesia’s broader investment initiatives.

“The total investment will reach US$10.2 billion, or approximately IDR 180 trillion. Of those 10 projects, Mr. President, four have already been completed and have recently held commercial ceremonies. Exports worth US$3.4 billion have also been completed. These downstreaming projects cover various sectors, including nickel-based battery materials, battery production, aluminum electrolytes, and electric heavy equipment,” Rosan explained.

Rosan added that the groundbreaking ceremonies would cover several additional industrial developments, including nickel-based battery materials, EV battery separators, aluminum electrolytes, electric heavy equipment for the mining and industrial sectors, and photovoltaic glass for solar energy applications.

“And this is the first, electric EV batteries, and also aluminum electrolytes, there are two, and also electric-based heavy equipment that will be built for trucks and also mining and also industry, and also photovoltaic glass for industrial solar energy, Mr. President,” Rosan reported.

October 8, 2026, CNBC Indonesia

(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261008121708-4-774398/sah-prabowo-resmikan-pembangunan-11-proyek-hilirisasi-rp180-triliun)

(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261008132552-4-774404/prabowo-ungkap-investasi-di-kawasan-iwip-tembus-us–20-miliar)

World Bank Raises Indonesia’s Economic Growth Forecast to 5.2%

The World Bank has raised its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026 to 5.2%, according to the October 2026 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Tuesday (October 6, 2026). This figure is 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous projection of 4.7% published in the April 2026 edition.

Indonesia’s projected economic growth is also higher than the average for the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, which is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, up from the April projection of 4.2%. As defined in the World Bank report, the EAP region comprises Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, and the Pacific island nations.

The World Bank identified the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) as one of the factors supporting the region’s economic growth prospects, particularly in countries involved in AI-related supply chains. “In the East Asia and Pacific region, a surge in global artificial intelligence (AI)-related activity is driving growth in countries participating in AI supply chains, while high energy costs are weighing on growth in other regions, particularly Pacific island economies,” the World Bank stated in its report.

In Indonesia, the World Bank noted that economic growth strengthened in the first half of 2026, rising from 5.1% in 2025 to an average of 5.4% in the first two quarters of 2026, the strongest two-quarter average since 2022. This acceleration was supported by stronger household consumption and a surge in government spending at the beginning of the year. “This increase reflects stronger private consumption and a surge in public spending around the turn of the year. This is due to the earlier onset of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, the advance of public sector holiday bonuses, and the accelerated implementation of the free nutritious meal program, which shifts government spending to the beginning of the fiscal cycle,” the World Bank explained.

However, the institution noted that domestic economic activity began to lose momentum afterward. This was reflected in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which fell to 49.3 in August 2026, and the consumer confidence index, which declined to 116.8 in July 2026. The World Bank also highlighted the widening fiscal deficit, which has raised market concerns about Indonesia’s fiscal outlook and credit rating.

Investor sentiment toward Indonesia deteriorated early in the year, exacerbated by rising global oil prices and disruptions to shipping. In the first quarter of 2026, portfolio investment outflows amounted to 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP). Concerns also emerged that Indonesia could be downgraded to frontier market status by MSCI, a global index provider. Such a downgrade could trigger automatic selling by passive index funds, putting downward pressure on the rupiah and the domestic stock market.

To mitigate market volatility, the government and Bank Indonesia introduced several stabilization measures, including the use of foreign exchange reserves, financial sector reforms, and a cumulative 100-basis-point increase in the policy interest rate in May and June 2026. “These measures helped mitigate the transmission impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation,” the World Bank stated.

Energy subsidy policies that limited fuel price increases also helped maintain price stability. According to the World Bank, inflation declined from 4.8% in February 2026 to 3.4% in July 2026.

October 6, 2026, CNBC Indonesia

(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261006091534-4-773643/bank-dunia-revisi-proyeksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-ri-kini-tembus-52)

IDR 650 Trillion in Investment: Downstreaming Takes a 30% Share in Indonesia

The Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming/Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) reported that the downstream sector accounted for approximately 30% of Indonesia’s total investment realization, making it a key driver of national investment growth supported by both domestic and international investors. Minister of Investment and Downstreaming and Head of BKPM Rosan Roeslani emphasized that downstreaming is essential to developing an integrated national industrial ecosystem spanning mining, processing, manufacturing, clean energy, and technology to generate added value and create jobs.

“The downstream industry now contributes around 30% of our total investment and continues to grow strongly, driven by domestic and international investors. Capital is flowing in,” Rosan said at the Indonesia International Sustainability Forum (IISF) 2026 in Jakarta on Tuesday (October 6, 2026).

Indonesia’s strong downstream investment performance is reflected in national investment realization, which exceeded US$120 billion in 2025, representing annual growth of 12.7% and generating employment for 2.7 million people. In the first half of 2026, investment realization reached US$61 billion, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, and created 1.45 million jobs.

Rosan explained that downstreaming encompasses several areas, including electrification, which covers the value chain from mining and raw material processing to battery production and electric vehicle manufacturing. Indonesia has made progress in this area through battery cell manufacturing facilities involving Hyundai, CATL, and Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC). According to Rosan, one in six new cars sold in Indonesia is now a battery-powered electric vehicle.

“First, electrification. From mining to battery cells to electric cars. Indonesia is now producing battery cells in two large factories with Hyundai and also with CATL and IBC, our state-owned companies, which began operations in stages in August. Now, one in six new cars sold in Indonesia is fully electric, and more than two-thirds of them are assembled here in Indonesia,” he said.

Separately, Deputy Minister of Investment and Downstreaming Todotua Pasaribu reported that investment realization in the first half of 2026 reached IDR 1,010.6 trillion, equivalent to 49.5% of the annual target of IDR 2,041.3 trillion. Of this amount, investment in downstreaming projects reached IDR 300.1 trillion, accounting for 29.7% of total investment realization and representing a 6.9% increase compared with the same period in the previous year.

According to Pasaribu’s presentation, the minerals sector dominated downstream investment in the first half of 2026, attracting IDR 206.5 trillion. Nickel downstreaming contributed IDR 71.0 trillion, followed by bauxite at IDR 53.8 trillion, copper at IDR 37.4 trillion, iron and steel at IDR 30.2 trillion, and silica sand at IDR 5.9 trillion. The plantation and forestry sector ranked second, with IDR 54.4 trillion in investment, including IDR 29.5 trillion in palm oil and IDR 5.0 trillion in rubber.

Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector attracted IDR 26.4 trillion in petroleum processing investment and IDR 9.0 trillion in natural gas investment. The fisheries and maritime affairs sector recorded IDR 3.8 trillion in downstream investment, covering the processing of commodities such as salt, tuna, skipjack, mackerel, shrimp, and seaweed.

October 6, 2026, CNBC Indonesia(https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20261006130739-4-773745/jadi-tulang-punggung-hilirisasi-sumbang-30-total-investasi-di-ri)